Examining My Options

I took an evening away from my positions last night to try and sniff out some new ideas.  Without further adieu, I have procured this brief list of stocks for your perusal:

CMC, DECK, DHI (for observational purposes only), MHR, WBMD, WM

Moving along…

I have said it before, but I believe that the move in steel stocks has only begun.  AKS has already traded north of 7.  As always, I am planning on the stock exhibiting some “backing and filling”, as it were.  There is a high likelihood that I will use that as a chance to add. I am currently in the Sept. 8 calls…cost basis: 0.44.

I noticed ANGI start to ‘tank’ on Friday just as I was going to have a nail removed from the left rear tire of my car..  You can do with that what you will (click on the ANGI tag cloud to aquatint yourself with our [ANGI and I] background if you so choose).

I tried to sell my COG July 40′s on Friday…my asking price was not accepted by the marketplace.  This was one of my favorite setups…(along with ANGI and MA…), and it is just crumbling.  I am confident that the stock will rally at some point, but I’d rather observe versus watching the time value of these calls deteriorate.

I sold out of all of the COP March (28) 69 calls at 0.10 (from 0.23) and moved a portion of the proceeds into two more Aug 75 calls at 0.33, giving me 10 at 0.32.  Instead of pressing the lotto ticket, I decided to move on and roll some of the scraps into the longer dated position.

We are getting closer with FIG.  I will look to add either this week or next (maybe both?).  The Jun 9 calls are asking around 0.2-0.25.  I really like my chances with this one.  Hell, the premiums are low enough that you can lotto these (i.e., risk the entire premium).  The reward to risk is heavily slanted toward the former.

I mentioned last week how I expect to see 35-36 act as a ‘staging area’ for the next move in GM.  It could really go either way from here, but I have been trading these ‘secondary’ breakdowns well in 2014 so far. AKS, X, FTK, HAL (to a lesser extent), I saw FSLR coming (check the archives) but was stopped out.  GM is another one doing the same thing.  I’m long the June 40′s at 0.61.

The longer GNTX trades like this the more likely we see 29 before 33…and it could be swift and ruthless upon my June 35 calls.  Mind you, this is a stream of consciousness realization (to be fair, all of these posts are), so this foreboding feeling that has struck me regarding this trade is somewhat enlightening.

I don’t know why, because it is far from the typical pattern I look for, but really like what IGT is giving us to work with right now.   I was foiled in my attempt to sneak in a few more July 18 calls at the bid.  There is a huge unfilled gap in this stock…it is only a matter of time before it is filled…my hope is that there is enough time.

Though I stand to watch unrealized losses start to mount, I am interested to see what happens in the coming weeks with MA.  This was one of my favorite looking stocks until late last week.  Then Thursday night I mentioned that, all of the sudden, something did not sit right with me.  The stock ended the week down less than 0.5%, but it was a shitty feeling trading almost at 80 only to close the week below 76.  Blech.  I’m sticking with these July 83 calls for the time being.

MS may pause below 33 for a bit, but this stock wants to go higher.  I will evaluate any and all pullbacks for an opportunity to add to these July 34 calls.

NOV is in a ‘tertiary’ breakdown (as compared to the aforementioned secondary breakdown), fresh off of a move higher which was repulsed (with significant prejudice).  I am long the August 85 calls…which is probably a little too ambitious of a price target, but this stock had started smokin’ to the upside early in March and with some oomph, could get there.  I have my eye on the January lows as my cue to cut and run.

Ah yes, I forgot about the secondary breakdown in SBUX as well.  I am up over 100% in these July 82.5 calls (avg: 0.77).  On Thursday I spoke about how I so deftly ignored the opportunity to add to this position prior to this move starting in earnest.  Maybe if I keep reminding myself of this, I will learn.

UPS is like the forgotten stock in this collection.  Tough to get a read on here.   I could see the stock trade sub 94…which I would actually use as an opportunity to add/reload depending on how it deals with those January lows.

In trying to learn from my SBUX trade, I added a WMT Sept 80 call on Friday at 1.05 (during amateur hour, even).  I now have 8 at 0.85.

Oh man, X looks good.  I love how this analysis is bookended by the two steel stocks.  I have 8 July 30 calls at 0.58.  Giddy Up.

The account went over 15k intraday, but finished up at 14.2k.  Violent reversal.  Cash is 7.3k.

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